[Effect of Family Environment on Non-Suicidal Self-Injury Among Middle School Students During the COVID-19 Epidemic: The Mediating Role of Depression].

Objective: To study the current status of non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) incidents among middle school students in Chengdu during the COVID-19 epidemic and to explore the mechanism of action of depression on the relationship between family environment and NSSI. Methods: Data were obtained from the Chengdu Positive Child Development (CDPD) cohort. In June and July 2020, after primary and secondary schools were reopened after the closure due to the COVID-19 epidemic, on-site questionnaire surveys were conducted with the Deliberate Self-Harm Inventory (DSHI), the Chinese Family Assessment Instrument (C-FAI), and Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale for Children (CES-DC), thereby obtaining the data of 3595 middle school students. Two-sample t-test and χ 2 test were used to compare the incidence of NSSI among middle school students of different grades and genders, and the Model 58 test of the SPSS PROCESS component was used to analyze the mediating effect of gender-mediated depression. Results: 1) The incidence of NSSI among middle school students in Chengdu during the COVID-19 epidemic was 49.67%. The incidence of NSSI among ninth-graders (80.70%) was significantly higher than those of the eighth graders (33.82%) and seventh graders (32.32%), and the incidence of NSSI among female middle school students (54.75%) was significantly higher than that of male students (44.52%). 2) Family environment ( r=0.34, P<0.001) and depression ( r=0.50, P<0.001) were positively correlated with NSSI. 3) Depression partially mediated the effect of family environment on NSSI, with the mediating effect accounting for 64.64% of the total effect. Compared with that of male students, the positive predictive effect between family environment and depression and that between depression and NSSI in female middle school students were more significant. Conclusion: During the COVID-19 pandemic, middle school students in Chengdu had a high incidence of NSSI, which indicates that the family environment should be improved, more attention should be given to gender differences, and early screening and intervention for depression should be strengthened to reduce the incidence of NSSI.

Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Infection in a Centralized Quarantine Location in Hangzhou, China.

This cohort study assesses whether transmission of COVID-19 occurred among individuals staying on different floors at a hotel used as a centralized quarantine location in Hangzhou, China.

Age-related model for estimating the symptomatic and asymptomatic transmissibility of COVID-19 patients.

Estimation of age-dependent transmissibility of COVID-19 patients is critical for effective policymaking. Although the transmissibility of symptomatic cases has been extensively studied, asymptomatic infection is understudied due to limited data. Using a dataset with reliably distinguished symptomatic and asymptomatic statuses of COVID-19 cases, we propose an ordinary differential equation model that considers age-dependent transmissibility in transmission dynamics. Under a Bayesian framework, multi-source information is synthesized in our model for identifying transmissibility. A shrinkage prior among age groups is also adopted to improve the estimation behavior of transmissibility from age-structured data. The added values of accounting for age-dependent transmissibility are further evaluated through simulation studies. In real-data analysis, we compare our approach with two basic models using the deviance information criterion (DIC) and its extension. We find that the proposed model is more flexible for our epidemic data. Our results also suggest that the transmissibility of asymptomatic infections is significantly lower (on average, 76.45% with a credible interval (27.38%, 88.65%)) than that of symptomatic cases. In both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients, the transmissibility mainly increases with age. Patients older than 30 years are more likely to develop symptoms with higher transmissibility. We also find that the transmission burden of asymptomatic cases is lower than that of symptomatic patients.

Transmission roles of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases: a modelling study.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) asymptomatic cases are hard to identify, impeding transmissibility estimation. The value of COVID-19 transmissibility is worth further elucidation for key assumptions in further modelling studies. Through a population-based surveillance network, we collected data on 1342 confirmed cases with a 90-days follow-up for all asymptomatic cases. An age-stratified compartmental model containing contact information was built to estimate the transmissibility of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. The difference in transmissibility of a symptomatic and asymptomatic case depended on age and was most distinct for the middle-age groups. The asymptomatic cases had a 66.7% lower transmissibility rate than symptomatic cases, and 74.1% (95% CI 65.9-80.7) of all asymptomatic cases were missed in detection. The average proportion of asymptomatic cases was 28.2% (95% CI 23.0-34.6). Simulation demonstrated that the burden of asymptomatic transmission increased as the epidemic continued and could potentially dominate total transmission. The transmissibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases is high and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases play a significant role in outbreaks.

Analysis of Firearm Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the US.

Importance: In the US, the COVID-19 pandemic intensified some conditions that may contribute to firearm violence, and a recent surge in firearm sales during the pandemic has been reported. However, patterns of change in firearm violence in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US remain unclear. Objective: To quantify the changes in interpersonal firearm violence associated with the pandemic across all 50 US states and the District of Columbia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cross-sectional study examined 50 US states and the District of Columbia from January 1, 2016, to February 28, 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic period was defined as between March 1, 2020, and February 28, 2021. Statistical analysis was performed from April to December 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: A 2-stage interrupted time-series design was used to examine the excess burden of firearm-related incidents, nonfatal injuries, and deaths associated with the pandemic while accounting for long-term trends and seasonality. In the first stage, separate quasi-Poisson regression models were fit to the daily number of firearm events in each state. In the second stage, estimates were pooled using a multivariate meta-analysis. Results: In the US (all 50 states and the District of Columbia) during the pandemic period of March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021, there were 62 485 identified firearm-related incidents, 40 021 firearm-related nonfatal injuries, and 19 818 firearm-related deaths. The pandemic period was associated with 8138 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI], 2769-12 948) excess incidents (increase of 15.0% [95% eCI, 4.6%-26.1%]), 10 222 (95% eCI, 8284-11 650) excess nonfatal injuries (increase of 34.3% [95% eCI, 26.1%-41.1%]), and 4381 (95% eCI, 2262-6264) excess deaths (increase of 28.4% [95% eCI, 12.9%-46.2%]). The increase in firearm-related violence was more pronounced from June to October 2020 and in Minnesota and New York State. Conclusions and Relevance: In the US, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with an excess burden of firearm-related incidents, nonfatal injuries, and deaths, with substantial temporal and spatial variations.

COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics Among Close Contacts of Index Patients With COVID-19: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Zhejiang Province, China.

Importance: Much remains unknown about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. How the severity of the index case and timing of exposure is associated with disease in close contacts of index patients with COVID-19 and clinical presentation in those developing disease is not well elucidated. Objectives: To investigate the association between the timing of exposure and development of disease among close contacts of index patients with COVID-19 and to evaluate whether the severity of the index case is associated with clinical presentation in close contacts who develop COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used a large, population-based cohort of 730 individuals (index patients) who received a diagnosis of COVID-19 in Zhejiang Province, China, from January 8 to July 30, 2020, along with a contact tracing surveillance program. Field workers visited 8852 close contacts of the index patients and evaluated them for COVID-19 through August 2020. A timeline was constructed to characterize different exposure periods between index patients and their contacts. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the attack rate of COVID-19, defined as the total number of new COVID-19 cases diagnosed among contacts of index patients divided by the total number of exposed contacts. A secondary outcome was asymptomatic clinical presentation among infected contacts. Relative risks were calculated to investigate risk factors for COVID-19 among contacts and asymptomatic clinical presentation among infected contacts. Results: Among 8852 close contacts (4679 male contacts [52.9%]; median age, 41 years [interquartile range, 28-54 years]) of 730 index patients (374 male patients [51.2%]; median age, 46 years [interquartile range, 36-56 years]), contacts were at highest risk of COVID-19 if they were exposed between 2 days before and 3 days after the index patient's symptom onset, peaking at day 0 (adjusted relative risk [ARR], 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2-1.5). Compared with being exposed to an asymptomatic index patient, the risk of COVID-19 among contacts was higher when they were exposed to index patients with mild (ARR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.8-9.1) and moderate (ARR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.9-9.7) cases of COVID-19. As index case severity increased, infected contacts were less likely to be asymptomatic (exposed to patient with mild COVID-19: ARR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.9; exposed to patient with moderate COVID-19: ARR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.8). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that individuals with COVID-19 were most infectious a few days before and after symptom onset. Infected contacts of asymptomatic index patients were less likely to present with COVID-19 symptoms, suggesting that quantity of exposure may be associated with clinical presentation in close contacts.

The impact of social distancing, contact tracing, and case isolation interventions to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic: A modeling study.

INTRODUCTION: Most countries are dependent on nonpharmaceutical public health interventions such as social distancing, contact tracing, and case isolation to mitigate COVID-19 spread until medicines or vaccines widely available. Minimal research has been performed on the independent and combined impact of each of these interventions based on empirical case data. METHODS: We obtained data from all confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 7th to February 22nd 2020 in Zhejiang Province, China, to fit an age-stratified compartmental model using human contact information before and during the outbreak. The effectiveness of social distancing, contact tracing, and case isolation was studied and compared in simulation. We also simulated a two-phase reopening scenario to assess whether various strategies combining nonpharmaceutical interventions are likely to achieve population-level control of a second-wave epidemic. RESULTS: Our study sample included 1,218 symptomatic cases with COVID-19, of which 664 had no inter-province travel history. Results suggest that 36.5 % (95 % CI, 12.8-57.1) of contacts were quarantined, and approximately five days (95 % CI, 2.2-11.0) were needed to detect and isolate a case. As contact networks would increase after societal and economic reopening, avoiding a second wave without strengthening nonpharmaceutical interventions compared to the first wave it would be exceedingly difficult. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous attention and further improvement of nonpharmaceutical interventions are needed in second-wave prevention. Specifically, contact tracing merits further attention.

Using remote consultation to enhance diagnostic accuracy of bedside transthoracic echocardiography during COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical significance of remote consultation over bedside transthoracic echocardiography (RC-B-TTE) for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: Five frontline echocardiographers performed and interpreted B-TTE for 30 patients with COVID-19 in the isolation wards, and the on-site B-TTE reports (OSR) were generated. Then remote consultation over the 30 B-TTE studies was conducted by two experienced echocardiographic consultants while blinded to the OSR, and the corresponding remote consultation reports (RCR) were generated. Subsequently, the five frontline echocardiographers were convened together to discuss the difference between the OSR and RCR, and to confirm the correct interpretation and the misdiagnosis using a "majority-vote" consensus as the diagnostic "gold standard". Afterwards the reasons for the misdiagnosis were given by the frontline echocardiographers themselves. The inter-rater agreement between the OSR and the "gold standard" was assessed using Kappa coefficient and percent agreement. RESULTS: Complete correctness of the 30 copies of the RCR were determined by the 5 frontline echocardiographers. The reliability of the OSR in the findings of cardiac chamber dilation, left ventricular hypertrophy and pulmonary hypertension were weak (Kappa <0.6). The reliability of the OSR in the recognition of major cardiac abnormalities was very weak (Kappa =0.304, percent agreement =63.3%). Misdiagnosis of major abnormalities was found in 11 copies of OSR (11/30, 36.7%). CONCLUSIONS: The protocol of RC-B-TTE has shown noticeable superiority in ameliorating diagnostic accuracy of echocardiography, which should be generalized to clinical practice during the COVID-19 or similar pandemic.

Estimation of case-fatality rate in COVID-19 patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus in the New York state: a preliminary report.

Pre-existing health conditions may exacerbate the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to estimate the case-fatality rate (CFR) and rate ratios (RR) for patients with hypertension (HBP) and diabetes mellitus (DM) in the New York state. We obtained the age-specific number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths from public reports provided by the New York State Department of Health, and age-specific prevalence of HBP and DM from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 2017. We calculated CFR and RR for COVID-19 patients with HBP and DM based on the reported number of deaths with the comorbidity divided by the expected number of COVID-19 cases with the comorbidity. We performed subgroup analysis by age and calculated the CFR and RR for ages of 18-44, 45-64 and 65+ years, respectively. We found that the older population had a higher CFR, but the elevated RRs associated with comorbidities are more pronounced among the younger population. Our findings suggest that besides the elderly, the young population with comorbidity should also be considered as a vulnerable group.

Estimation of Coronavirus Disease Case-Fatality Risk in Real Time.

We ran a simulation comparing 3 methods to calculate case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease using parameters described in previous studies. Case-fatality risk calculated from these methods all are biased at the early stage of the epidemic. When comparing real-time case-fatality risk, the current trajectory of the epidemic should be considered.

The Asymptomatic Infection of COVID-19 Risen in Imported Population in Shenzhen, China (preprint)

Background As of July 24 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases was > 15.4 millions, with over 640,000 deaths. The present study aimed to carry out an epidemiological analysis of confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections in Shenzhen City to provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of COVID-19.Methods The epidemiological information of the 462 confirmed cases and 45 asymptomatic infections from January 19th to June 30th was collected in Shenzhen City, Southern China, and a descriptive analysis was performed.Results A total of 462 confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 19 to April 30, 2020 were reported in Shenzhen City, including 423 domestic cases (91.56%) and 39 imported cases (8.44%) who came back from other countries. Among domestic cases, the majority were cases imported from Hubei Province (n = 312, 67.53%), followed by local ones (n = 69, 14.94%). During the same period, a total of 45 asymptomatic infections were reported in Shenzhen City, including 31 local ones (68.89%) and 14 imported from abroad (31.11%). The proportion of asymptomatic infections in Shenzhen City was increasing over time (Z = 13.1888, P < 0.0001). The total number of local asymptomatic infections in Shenzhen City exceeded as the same pattern as that in other provinces (χ2 = 118.830, P < 0.0001). The proportion of asymptomatic infections among cases imported from abroad was higher than that of the same in domestic cases (χ2 = 22.5121, P < 0.0001, OR = 4.8983, 95%: 2.4052, 9.9756). No statistical significance was noted in the proportions of asymptomatic infections among imported cases from different countries (χ2 = 7.7202, P = 0.6561).Conclusions The majority of COVID-19 cases in Shenzhen City were imported cases who came back from Hubei Province in the early stage (before 1st March, 2020) and from abroad in the later stage (after 1st April, 2020). Scientific and effective prevention and control measures have resulted in only a few local infections in Shenzhen City. Asymptomatic infections accounted for an increasing proportion among cases imported from abroad, indicating that the prevention measures carried out in Shenzhen City did avoid the import of infected cases. Improving the detection capability to identify asymptomatic infections as early as possible will be of significance for the control outbreak of COVID-19.

Acute myocardial injury is common in patients with COVID-19 and impairs their prognosis.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to explore the prevalence and immediate clinical implications of acute myocardial injury in a cohort of patients with COVID-19 in a region of China where medical resources are less stressed than in Wuhan (the epicentre of the pandemic). METHODS: We prospectively assessed the medical records, laboratory results, chest CT images and use of medication in a cohort of patients presenting to two designated covid-19 treatment centres in Sichuan, China. Outcomes of interest included death, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), need for mechanical ventilation, treatment with vasoactive agents and classification of disease severity. Acute myocardial injury was defined by a value of high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) greater than the normal upper limit. RESULTS: A total of 101 cases were enrolled from January to 10 March 2020 (average age 49 years, IQR 34-62 years). Acute myocardial injury was present in 15.8% of patients, nearly half of whom had a hs-TnT value fivefold greater than the normal upper limit. Patients with acute myocardial injury were older, with a higher prevalence of pre-existing cardiovascular disease and more likely to require ICU admission (62.5% vs 24.7%, p=0.003), mechanical ventilation (43.5% vs 4.7%, p<0.001) and treatment with vasoactive agents (31.2% vs 0%, p<0.001). Log hs-TnT was associated with disease severity (OR 6.63, 95% CI 2.24 to 19.65), and all of the three deaths occurred in patients with acute myocardial injury. CONCLUSION: Acute myocardial injury is common in patients with COVID-19 and is associated with adverse prognosis.